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Prediction for CME (2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-07T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32584/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-08-07T03:24Z as well as in later frames of C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME appears very faint in white light imagery. The best fit between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A indicate that this event may originate from the vicinity of S15E30, however there is no definitive source seen on the disk for this event. There are a number of speculative sources including field line loop movement and brightening from AR 3781 (S13E42) as seen in SDO AIA 94. Arrival signature (possibly the arrival of this CME, 2024-08-07T14:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T19:36Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T01:51Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-08-07 09:56
 - Time at C2: 2024-08-07 03:24
 - Radial speed: 518.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: S15E27
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 561.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-08-10 01:51 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.45 hours)
Lead Time: 61.92 hour(s)
Difference: 10.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-08-07T22:00Z
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